NFL Week 1 Injury Updates & Fantasy Outlook

It's here! Football is back, and fans are preparing to spend 11.5 consecutive hours on their couch watching their favorite teams and their fantasy football rosters battle. Injuries are always a concern for fantasy football managers, and once again, I've got your back. The players below are all playing with some type of injury. Will they be able to play well through the injury? Is re-injury risk high? Read the NFL Week 1 Injury Updates & Fantasy Outlook article below and find out.

Lamar Jackson

Injury: Foot Injury

Analysis: Lamar has returned to practice and will start week 1 after having his foot stepped on. X-rays were negative, and this will not impact him in the short or long term. Jackson is an elite QB1.

Matthew Stafford

Injury: Lumbar Disc Injury

Analysis: Stafford is on track to start week 1 as he manages a lumbar disc injury. I have shouted from the rafters my concerns for Stafford this season. Being ready to play in week 1 is a great amount of progress, but lumbar disc injuries are easily aggravated by playing football. The rotational motion the body makes while throwing a football puts a shearing force on the discs, which, over time, can aggravate them. Additionally, it will only take one bad hit to worsen his condition. Studies show a 20% recurrence rate for lumbar disc injuries; however, this rate applies to the general population. The 20% number will be much higher for a professional quarterback.

I certainly hope Stafford can stay healthy, and while he is healthy, he should be able to throw well, but re-injury will be a big concern, especially in the first month of the season.

Jordan Love

Injury: Left Thumb Ligament Repair

Analysis: Love will play weeks after having surgery to repair a ligament in his left (non-throwing) thumb. Being his non-throwing hand, this will not be a problem in the near or long term. He will don a brace in the near future to ensure support for the ligament (which is very much still healing). The only concern would be that the brace might impact his ball handling with handoffs and taking snaps, but he has had a few weeks to adjust and should be okay.

Christian McCaffrey

Injury: Calf Injury

Analysis: McCaffrey was a full participant in practice on Wednesday (and all camp long) but apparently injured his calf in Thursday's practice. He says he feels great and will play, but we all remember the same story last season that resulted in CMC missing the first half of the season.

The calf muscles are critical for acceleration and sprinting and have a high recurrence rate (15-20%). Running backs average a mild decline of 7% fantasy points, a number that is irrelevant for CMC. The big issue here is McCaffrey's history. Prior injury and age are the two biggest risk factors for future injury; neither is in McCaffrey's favor. Let's hope this one is not bad. If he suits up Sunday and all indications are that he will play, obviously, you start him.

De'Von Achane

Injury: Calf Injury

Analysis: Achane is expected to play through a calf injury that occurred about four weeks ago. The calf muscles are CRITICAL for acceleration and top-flight speed, and that is the hallmark of Achane's game. Four weeks is usually enough for a muscle strain to have healed sufficiently, allowing it to regain most of its strength and power. I would expect Achane's acceleration and speed to be restored, enabling him to play very well.

The difficult situation is that calf injuries carry a 15-20% recurrence rate, putting Achane at a heightened risk for re-injury in week 1. In the NFL, running backs average missing 1.5 games with a calf injury, a number that varies from 0-5 games. With four weeks to rehab, Achane is ahead of the NFL's usual curve, which bodes well for his outlook. Running backs average a mild decline of 7% fantasy points and 8% snap count in the first game after a calf injury. All together, expect Achane to be productive when on the field, but possibly yield more touches than usual to Ollie Gordon. Achane remains an RB1 this week.

Kenneth Walker

Injury: Foot

Analysis: Walker has been dealing with a foot injury on and off all camp, but is expected to play in week one. We don't have specifics about what tissue is injured, and it does not appear this is very serious. A mild foot injury usually won't impact a runner, especially when he has been logging full practices early in the week. If this progresses to something worse, we will raise concern, but for right now, he should be able to play well.

Rachaad White

Injury: Groin Injury

Analysis: White is expected to play in week 1 after missing a chunk of camp with a groin injury. The groin is involved in sprinting and cutting, specifically when on one leg. Recurrence rates are about 18%, but typically, groin injuries do not negatively impact running backs from a fantasy perspective. RBs average missing <1 game and see no drop off in fantasy points in the first game after injury.

Jaylen Wright

Injury: Leg Surgery

Analysis: Wright will miss a few weeks after undergoing a minor leg procedure. Miami has not given us specifics on what tissue is injured or what procedure took place, but this time frame tells us nothing was repaired, possibly a cleanup. It's unclear how much time Wright will miss, but in the interim, rookie Ollie Gordon has an opportunity to steal Wright's work.

Justin Jefferson

Injury: Hamstring Injury

Analysis: Jefferson is expected to play in week one after missing nearly all of training camp with a hamstring injury. With over a month to rehab, I expect Jefferson's hamstring strength to be nearly 100% and his acceleration, speed, and route running should be as well. In 2023, Jefferson missed seven games with a hamstring injury; the current hamstring injury is to the opposite side, meaning he now has a history of each hamstring being injured.

The hamstring is the most commonly injured (and re-injured) muscle for football players and carries a 20-30% recurrence rate. The time Jefferson has had to rehab will reduce the risk for re-injury, but risk is present. Historically, receivers average a 15% decline in fantasy points and an 11% decline in snap count in the first game after a hamstring injury, but with the ample time Jefferson has had to rehab, I do not expect any drop-off in production. JJ is an elite WR1 but has a slightly increased risk for re-injury early in the season.

Malik Nabers

Injury: Back

Analysis: Nabers briefly popped up on the injury report with a back injury, which he also experienced during training camp. He has since been removed from the injury report and will play. A mild back injury should not impact his production, and he is an elite fantasy start. Nabers' toe is still a concern and likely will linger all season.

Tyreek Hill

Injury: Oblique/Calf Injury

Analysis: Hill missed a large portion of camp with an oblique injury but is expected to play in week one. The obliques are powerful torso rotators that aid in twisting the body to make a catch and contribute to bracing the body for impact. Obliques receive a solid blood supply and generally heal well. I would not expect this injury to influence Hill's fantasy output this week.

More recently, Hill was reported to have a calf injury. This appears to be extremely minor as Coach McDaniel states he is "absolutley" on track to play. Even if mild, a calf injury can slow the type of game Hill plays, which is elite speed. Receivers average a massive 37% hit on fantasy points after a calf injury, and while I doubt Hill is that impacted, he may be mildly hinderd.

Stefon Diggs

Injury: ACL Tear

Analysis: Diggs is on track to start in week one, approximately 10.5 months following his ACL tear. Diggs has always appeared to be ahead of schedule with his rehab and finds himself in a situation where he should see a decent volume of targets. The concern is the difficulty of playing well in year one after an ACL tear, especially for a 31-year-old.

Historically, receivers average 28% fewer points per game in year-one after an ACL compared to pre-injury. Athletes also have a 10-15% risk for either a re-tear or a tear of the opposite ACL in year-one post-injury. Additionally, rates of hamstring, quad, calf, and groin injuries are elevated in the first year after an ACL tear.

Diggs can be productive this season as he is expected to be peppered with targets. But history is against him.

Tetairoa McMillan

Injury: Hamstring Injury

Analysis: The Panthers' rookie dealt with mild hamstring tightness in camp, but was never reported to have a major injury. The hamstrings are incredibly powerful muscles that are highly involved in sprinting. The load on the hamstring increases dramatically when a player increases his speed from 80-100% of maximal sprinting, which is why receivers are so prone to hamstring injuries. Fortunately, McMillan's injury was very mild, and a 22-year-old's body is extremely efficient at healing, so it is unlikely this injury will impact Tet's performance in week 1.

As mentioned above with Jefferson, receivers average a 15% decline in fantasy points after a hamstring injury. With this being McMillan's first career game, we have no fantasy baseline to go off of, but it is unlikely this will hinder him.

Jauan Jennings

Injury: Calf Injury

Analysis: Jennings is off of the injury report and will play after rehabbing a calf injury that he aggravated during camp. At this point Jennings has had about five weeks to rehab. In the NFL receivers average missing just 1.2 weeks, so Jennings has had about four times the average time to rehab. While receivers average a massive 37% dip in fantasy points after a calf injury, this additional time to rehab should allow Jennings to play well.

Khalil Shakir

Injury: High Ankle Sprain

Analysis: Shakir is on track to play after suffering a high ankle sprain in early August. High ankle sprains make it difficult to quickly plant and change direction, which a slot receiver like Shakir lives off of. Over a month to rehab should have his ankle stability largely restored, and I would expect Shakir to look good from the start.

Receivers average missing 2.8 weeks with a high ankle sprain (Shakir has had well more than 2.8 weeks), but average no drop-off in fantasy points when they return. Shakir is a viable WR3/flex option this week.

Marvin Mims

Injury: Groin Injury

Analysis: Mims is expected to play through a mild groin injury. Groin injuries can impact top speed, but when mild usually are not an issue. Receivers average no drop-off in fantasy points after a groin injury.

Jayden Reed

Injury: Jones Fracture

Analysis: Reed will attempt to play through a Jones fracture, which is a break to the 5th metatarsal, the long bone on the outside of the foot. This bone is loaded with sprinting and especially with cutting, and often requires surgery. Reports suggest that Reed was advised not to play through this injury, which is excellent advice. Reed is playing with fire, with a very high chance of furthering the fracture. Let's also not forget that Reed suffered a shoulder dislocation in the playoffs last year and did not have surgery. Redislocation rates are 55% in the NFL.

I love Reed's talent, but he is at elevated risk for re-injury of either of these two injuries.

Josh Downs

Injury: Hamstring Injury

Analysis: Downs has been cleared from the injury report and will play after injuring his hamstring on August 13th. Nearly four weeks to rehab should be plenty to avoid the usual 15% dip in fantasy points receivers average after a hamstring injury, but Downs will experience a heightened risk for injury.

Christian Kirk

Injury: Hamstring Injury

Analysis: Kirk is not expected to play Sunday as he rehabs a hamstring injury. Receivers average missing 1.9 games due to a hamstring.

Darnell Mooney

Injury: Shoulder Injury

Analysis: Mooney appears to be a game time decision on Sunday as he continues to rehab a shoulder injury from early in camp. If Mooney is able to play, shoulder injuries typically do not affect fantasy output for receivers.

Player Injury Profile

Cade Otton

Injury: Groin Injury

Analysis: Otten will play after missing some time with a groin injury. Tight ends average a 14% dip in fantasy points after a groin injury.

Darren Waller

Injury: Hip injury

Analysis: Waller is not expected to play as he rehabs an unspecified hip injury.